There are plenty of ways to think about planning an artistic career. Are you aiming to be the enfant terrible, a young provocateur? Or are you playing the long game, sticking with your work until it gets recognized? In The Guardian, Oliver Burkeman outlines a new theory of creative growth that I hadn’t heard of before — the “Helsinki Bus Station Theory.”
The theory was first posed by the Finnish, U.S.-based photographer Arno Rafael Minkkinen in a2004 graduation speech. He explains that Helsinki’s bus map is pretty unique — many of the buses follow the same route out from the city’s central square, but after a while, all of the paths diverge, traveling to different neighborhoods. Minkkinen uses this as a metaphor for developing an artistic practice.
“Let’s say, metaphorically speaking, that each bus stop represents one year in the life of a photographer,” he explains. After three years, Minkkinen’s metaphorical photographer has been making platinum prints of nudes, like Irving Penn. He takes the prints to the Museum of Fine Arts to show them to the curators, but the curators show you Penn’s work, and you freak out, “hop off the bus, grab a cab (because life is short) and head straight back to the bus station looking for another platform,” and start over again.
If you don’t take a step back from the cycle, that process of repetition “goes on all your creative life, always showing new work, always being compared to others,” Minkkinen says. What to do instead? “It’s simple. Stay on the bus.” Staying on the bus means staying on your own aesthetic path till the end, following it through to its conclusion and not getting distracted from that pursuit by comparisons with other artists or aesthetic trends.
The Helsinki Bus Station Theory is a pretty important lesson. Many of the most famous artists in art history have created work that wasn’t initially accepted, or universally panned at the time of its making. Rembrandt’s late work didn’t win him any fans, nor did Picasso’s late brushy expressionism. The Abstract Expressionist crowd thought Philip Guston was crazy for ditching abstraction for doodles of KKK members. Yet each of these artistic strategies ended in career-defining work for the artists.
The Bus Station theory is about working with an eye to the long term rather than instant positive feedback, thinking about what will make a lasting impact and what pleases you personally. It’s a lesson we can all stand to learn. Sadly, the chaotic, convoluted New York City bus system is unlikely to teach you quite as much.
// Interesting that technology and innovation has moved to agile/release/validate cycles, while Art Theory says ‘stay the course’.
“… most days, if you’re aware enough to give yourself a choice, you can choose to look differently at this fat, dead-eyed, over-made-up lady who just screamed at her kid in the checkout line. Maybe she’s not usually like this. Maybe she’s been up three straight nights holding the hand of a husband who is dying of bone cancer. Or maybe this very lady is the low-wage clerk at the motor vehicle department, who just yesterday helped your spouse resolve a horrific, infuriating, red-tape problem through some small act of bureaucratic kindness. Of course, none of this is likely, but it’s also not impossible. It just depends what you want to consider. If you’re automatically sure that you know what reality is, and you are operating on your default setting, then you, like me, probably won’t consider possibilities that aren’t annoying and miserable. But if you really learn how to pay attention, then you will know there are other options. It will actually be within your power to experience a crowded, hot, slow, consumer-hell type situation as not only meaningful, but sacred, on fire with the same force that made the stars: love, fellowship, the mystical oneness of all things deep down.
Not that that mystical stuff is necessarily true. The only thing that’s capital-T True is that you get to decide how you’re gonna try to see it.
This, I submit, is the freedom of a real education, of learning how to be well-adjusted. You get to consciously decide what has meaning and what doesn’t. You get to decide what to worship.
Because here’s something else that’s weird but true: in the day-to-day trenches of adult life, there is actually no such thing as atheism. There is no such thing as not worshipping. Everybody worships. The only choice we get is what to worship. And the compelling reason for maybe choosing some sort of god or spiritual-type thing to worship—be it JC or Allah, be it YHWH or the Wiccan Mother Goddess, or the Four Noble Truths, or some inviolable set of ethical principles—is that pretty much anything else you worship will eat you alive. If you worship money and things, if they are where you tap real meaning in life, then you will never have enough, never feel you have enough. It’s the truth. Worship your body and beauty and sexual allure and you will always feel ugly. And when time and age start showing, you will die a million deaths before they finally grieve you. On one level, we all know this stuff already. It’s been codified as myths, proverbs, clichés, epigrams, parables; the skeleton of every great story. The whole trick is keeping the truth up front in daily consciousness.
Worship power, you will end up feeling weak and afraid, and you will need ever more power over others to numb you to your own fear. Worship your intellect, being seen as smart, you will end up feeling stupid, a fraud, always on the verge of being found out. But the insidious thing about these forms of worship is not that they’re evil or sinful, it’s that they’re unconscious. They are default settings.
They’re the kind of worship you just gradually slip into, day after day, getting more and more selective about what you see and how you measure value without ever being fully aware that that’s what you’re doing.
And the so-called real world will not discourage you from operating on your default settings, because the so-called real world of men and money and power hums merrily along in a pool of fear and anger and frustration and craving and worship of self. Our own present culture has harnessed these forces in ways that have yielded extraordinary wealth and comfort and personal freedom. The freedom all to be lords of our tiny skull-sized kingdoms, alone at the centre of all creation. This kind of freedom has much to recommend it. But of course there are all different kinds of freedom, and the kind that is most precious you will not hear much talk about much in the great outside world of wanting and achieving…. The really important kind of freedom involves attention and awareness and discipline, and being able truly to care about other people and to sacrifice for them over and over in myriad petty, unsexy ways every day.
That is real freedom. That is being educated, and understanding how to think. The alternative is unconsciousness, the default setting, the rat race, the constant gnawing sense of having had, and lost, some infinite thing.
- David Foster Wallace
(Commencement address he gave to the graduates of Kenyon College in 2005)
Understanding cognitive biases is the act of embracing, nuzzling and keeping enemies close. Because much of what I do, every day, is selling…
1. Status quo bias
One of the biggest reason people lose out financially is they stick with what they know, despite much better options being available. We tend to choose the same things we chose before. And we continue to do this even when better options are available, whether it’s goods or services.
Research on investment decisions shows this bias (e.g. Samuelson & Zeckhauser, 1988). People stick to the same old pension plans, stocks and shares, even though there are better options available.
It’s hard to change because it involves more effort and we want to avoid regretting our decision. But there is better value out there if you’re prepared to look.
2. Post-purchase rationalisation
After we buy something that’s not right, we convince ourselves it is right.
Most people refuse to accept they’ve made a mistake, especially with a big purchase. Marketers know this, so they try to encourage part-ownership first, using things like money-back guarantees. Once you’ve made a decision, you convince yourself it was the right one (see: cognitive dissonance), and also start to value it more because you own it (e.g. Cohen et al., 1970).
Fight it! If the goods or services aren’t right, return them. Most country’s legal systems incorporate a cooling off period, so don’t rationalise, return it!
3. Relativity trap
We think about prices relatively and businesses know this. That’s why recommended retail prices are set high, then discounted. Some expensive options on restaurant menus are there only to make the regular meals look reasonable in comparison.
The relativity trap is also called the anchoring effect. One price acts like an anchor on our thinking. It’s easy to fall for, but also easy to surmount by making comparisons they don’t want you to make (read more about therelativity trap).
Use price comparison websites. And try comparing across categories of goods. Is an iPad really worth a month’s groceries or three years of cinema trips or a new set of clothes?
4. Ownership effect
We value things more when we own them. So when it comes to selling our stuff, we tend to set the price too high.
It’s why you sometimes see second-hand goods advertised at ridiculous prices. Unlike professionals, amateur sellers develop an emotional attachment to their possessions (read the research on 6 quirks of ownership).
It also works the other way. When bidding on eBay, it’s possible to feel you already partly own something before you actually buy it. So you end up paying above the market value.
When buying or selling you have to try and be dispassionate. Be aware that unless you set limits, your unconscious may take over.
5. Present bias
In general humans prefer to get the pleasure right now, and leave the pain for later. Economists call this hyperbolic discounting.
In a study by Read and van Leeuwen (1998), when making food choices for next week, 74% of participants chose fruit. But when deciding for today, 70% chose chocolate. That’s humans for you: chocolate today, fruit next week.
The same is true of money. Marketers know we are suckers for getting discounts right now, so they hide the pain for later on (think mobile phone deals). Unfortunately buy now, pay later offers are often very bad deals.
One way to get around this is to think about your future self when making a purchasing decision. Imagine how ‘future you’ will see the decisions of ‘present you’. If ‘future you’ wouldn’t like it, don’t do it.
6. Fear of losses
People tend to sell things when they go up in price, but hold on to them when they go down. It’s one demonstration of our natural desire to avoid losses. This effect has been seen in a number of studies of stock-market trading (e.g. Weber & Camerer, 1998).
The fact that prices are falling, though, is a big clue. If you can fight the fear of losing, in the end it could leave you better off.
7. Familiarity bias
Advertising works partly because we like what we know, even if we only vaguely know it. We even choose familiar things when there are clear signals that it’s not the best option (Richter & Spath, 2006).
Always check if you’re buying something for the right reasons. Mere familiarity means the advertisers are winning. Smaller companies that can’t or won’t afford pricey TV commercials often provide better products and services.
8. Rosy retrospection
We tend to remember our decisions as better than they really were.
This is a problem when we come to make similar decisions again. We have a bias towards thinking our previous decision was a good one; it could be the holiday, house or car you chose (e.g. Mitchell & Thompson, 1994). That’s partly why we end up making the same financial mistakes again: we forget we made the same mistake before.
Before making an important financial decision, try to dredge up the realoutcomes of previous decisions. Only without the rose-tinted spectacles can we avoid repeating our mistakes.
9. Free!
The word ‘free’ has a magical hold on us and marketers know it. Behavioural economics research shows we sometimes take a worse deal overall just to get something for free. Watch out if you are offered something for ‘free’ as sometimes the deal is not that good.
10. Restraint bias
Many mistakes with money result from a lack of self-control. We think we’ll control ourselves, but, when faced with temptation, we can’t. Studies likeNordgren et al., (2009) show people are woefully optimistic in predicting their self-control.
So, don’t put yourself in the situation of being tempted. This is why cutting up credit cards is often recommended. We’re mostly weaker than we think, so we shouldn’t give ourselves the opportunity.
One day at IMG I am interviewing Sasha. She is 22. Grew up in Moscow. One gets the sense that, more than others’, her life has been utterly transformed by modeling. She is so nervous about being interviewed-partly, I think, because her English is not so good- that she has printed out a list of questions that I sent her agent so that she could be prepared.
She wrote her answers out on the paper, and now she is reading them aloud to me, her hands trembling. I have to fight the urge to hug her. But all of the nerves disappear in an instant when I throw her a question that isn’t on the printout. Do you want to be a supermodel? I ask. She looks at me with that face and stares out from those Prada ads and says in her thick accent, “In Rrrussia, vee have proverb: Only bad soldiers don’t vant to be general.”
“
The software industry is poised to embrace its craft heritage. By 2020 software will return to a cottage industry, with bespoke applications made by many, rather than today’s industrialized, Microsoft-esque mass-production and distribution model. It will be part of a larger world movement to make things by hand, infused with emotion and integrity. This phenomenon is already becoming visible in the rise of the “apps” market for mobile phones. With few dominant players and close-to-zero distribution costs, practically anyone can “ship” an app on the iPhone, Android or BlackBerry. These apps are often built with care and attention to the design that big companies’ offerings lack. Look at the exquisite quality made by game companies like Iconfactory; or the many iPhone apps like ToonPaint that focus on letting users make “hand-crafted” creative content on their phones.
Rather than be content to accept corporate anonymity, we will rediscover the value of authorship. In 2020 technology will continue to enable individual makers to operate in the same way that once only large corporations could do. Witness the growth of individuals as “brands-of-one” in the social media space, broadcasting their news in the same fashion as major media outlets, or in software apps marketplaces, where “Bob Schula” can hawk his wares right next to “Adobe Systems,” and it’s just as easy to buy hand-stenciled napkins from a seller on Etsy as it is to buy them from Crate & Barrel. You might say it is a return to learning to trust individuals again, instead of relying on an indirect connection to a product through trust in its brand. Certainly our trust in those brands is already being tested right now.
Digital metaphors will reconnect to their original physical sources as a way to recapture what has been lost in translation. A creative director friend of mine recently commented how he noticed that younger designers were absolutely captivated when he used tracing paper in layers to develop a concept over an existing printed photograph. They commented to him, “Wow! That’s so fast. I could never make those layers in Photoshop so quickly.” Today we fill folders on our computer desktop to the brim with absolutely no sense of scale, no notion of what is a “full” or “less full” folder. They may be more easily searched, but there’s a reason why paper-based systems comfort us so well with their tacit communication of what is more vs. what is less. Unable to let this go, we will see many new designs that best leverage what is good in virtual with what is good in the physical world. The subtleties and grayness that we can so easily grasp off the screen will make their way on to it.
The last 20 years have been so full of technological change that technology and the digital world has become the dominant narrative in our consumer culture. Educators, legislators, futurists and social scientists can’t help but fixate on it. As we become more accustomed to it, happily, some breathing room will open up for a different conversation about what we want back in our lives.
So, what will take technology’s place? It begins with art, design and you: Products and culture that are made by many individuals, made by hand, made well, made by people we trust, and made to capture some of the nuances and imperfections that we treasure in the physical world. It may just feel like we’ve regained some of what we’ve lost in 2010.
- Maeda
“Everything can be taken from a man but one thing,” Frankl wrote in Man’s Search for Meaning, “the last of the human freedoms — to choose one’s attitude in any given set of circumstances, to choose one’s own way.”
This uniqueness and singleness which distinguishes each individual and gives a meaning to his existence has a bearing on creative work as much as it does on human love. When the impossibility of replacing a person is realized, it allows the responsibility which a man has for his existence and its continuance to appear in all its magnitude. A man who becomes conscious of the responsibility he bears toward a human being who affectionately waits for him, or to an unfinished work, will never be able to throw away his life. He knows the “why” for his existence, and will be able to bear almost any “how.”
How do the happy life and the meaningful life differ? Happiness, they found, is about feeling good. Specifically, the researchers found that people who are happy tend to think that life is easy, they are in good physical health, and they are able to buy the things that they need and want. While not having enough money decreases how happy and meaningful you consider your life to be, it has a much greater impact on happiness. The happy life is also defined by a lack of stress or worry.
“Happy people get a lot of joy from receiving benefits from others while people leading meaningful lives get a lot of joy from giving to others
What sets human beings apart from animals is not the pursuit of happiness, which occurs all across the natural world, but the pursuit of meaning, which is unique to humans,
Meaning is not only about transcending the self, but also about transcending the present moment — which is perhaps the most important finding of the study, according to the researchers. While happiness is an emotion felt in the here and now, it ultimately fades away, just as all emotions do; positive affect and feelings of pleasure are fleeting. The amount of time people report feeling good or bad correlates with happiness but not at all with meaning.
Meaning, on the other hand, is enduring. It connects the past to the present to the future. “Thinking beyond the present moment, into the past or future, was a sign of the relatively meaningful but unhappy life,” the researchers write. “Happiness is not generally found in contemplating the past or future.” That is, people who thought more about the present were happier, but people who spent more time thinking about the future or about past struggles and sufferings felt more meaning in their lives, though they were less happy.
Ang Lee: A Never-Ending Dream
BY IRENE SHIH
Following Ang Lee’s second Best Directing win at the Academy Awards last night, this beautiful essay resurfaced. Here is my translation of Ang Lee’s words, written in 2006 (post-Oscar win). Please credit the translation to Irene Shih (and to this blog), thank you!
In 1978, as I applied to study film at the University of Illinois, my father vehemently objected. He quoted me a statistic: ‘Every year, 50,000 performers compete for 200 available roles on Broadway.’ Against his advice, I boarded a flight to the U.S. This strained our relationship. In the two decades following, we exchanged less than a hundred phrases in conversation.
Some years later, when I graduated film school, I came to comprehend my father’s concern. It was nearly unheard of for a Chinese newcomer to make it in the American film industry. Beginning in 1983, I struggled through six years of agonizing, hopeless uncertainty. Much of the time, I was helping film crews with their equipment or working as editor’s assistant, among other miscellaneous duties. My most painful experience involved shopping a screenplay at more than thirty different production companies, and being met with harsh rejection each time.
That year, I turned 30. There’s an old Chinese saying: ‘At 30, one stands firm.’ Yet, I couldn’t even support myself. What could I do? Keep waiting, or give up my movie-making dream? My wife gave me invaluable support.
My wife was my college classmate. She was a biology major, and after graduation, went to work for a small pharmaceutical research lab. Her income was terribly modest. At the time, we already had our elder son, Haan, to raise. To appease my own feelings of guilt, I took on all housework – cooking, cleaning, taking care of our son – in addition to reading, reviewing films and writing scripts. Every evening after preparing dinner, I would sit on the front steps with Haan, telling him stories as we waited for his mother – the heroic huntress – to come home with our sustenance (income).
This kind of life felt rather undignified for a man. At one point, my in-laws gave their daughter (my wife) a sum of money, intended as start-up capital for me to open a Chinese restaurant – hoping that a business would help support my family. But my wife refused the money. When I found out about this exchange, I stayed up several nights and finally decided: This dream of mine is not meant to be. I must face reality.
Afterward (and with a heavy heart), I enrolled in a computer course at a nearby community college. At a time when employment trumped all other considerations, it seemed that only a knowledge of computers could quickly make me employable. For the days that followed, I descended into malaise. My wife, noticing my unusual demeanor, discovered a schedule of classes tucked in my bag. She made no comment that night.
The next morning, right before she got in her car to head off to work, my wife turned back and – standing there on our front steps – said, ‘Ang, don’t forget your dream.’
And that dream of mine – drowned by demands of reality – came back to life. As my wife drove off, I took the class schedule out of my bag and slowly, deliberately tore it to pieces. And tossed it in the trash.
Sometime after, I obtained funding for my screenplay, and began to shoot my own films. And after that, a few of my films started to win international awards. Recalling earlier times, my wife confessed, ‘I’ve always believed that you only need one gift. Your gift is making films. There are so many people studying computers already, they don’t need an Ang Lee to do that. If you want that golden statue, you have to commit to the dream.’
And today, I’ve finally won that golden statue. I think my own perseverance and my wife’s immeasurable sacrifice have finally met their reward. And I am now more assured than ever before: I must continue making films.
You see, I have this never-ending dream.
Irene’s Note: If you liked Ang’s essay, you might also enjoy this older essay I wrote: A Dream Deferred (Link).
Original text (in Chinese):
文 / 李安
1978年,當我準備報考美國伊利諾大學的戲劇電影系時,父親十分反感,他給我列了一個資料:在美國百老匯,每年只有兩百個角色,但卻有五萬人要一起爭奪這少得可憐的角色。當時我一意孤行,決意登上了去美國的班機,父親和我的關係從此惡化,近二十年間和我說的話不超過一百句!
但是,等我幾年後從電影學院畢業,我終於明白了父親的苦心所在。在美國電影界,一個沒有任何背景的華人要想混出名堂來,談何容易。從1983年起,我經過了六年的漫長而無望的等待,大多數時候都是幫劇組看看器材、做點剪輯助理、劇務之類的雜事。最痛苦的經歷是,曾經拿著一個劇本,兩個星期跑了三十多家公司,一次次面對別人的白眼和拒絕。
那時候,我已經將近三十歲了。古人說:三十而立。而我連自己的生活都還沒法自立,怎麼辦?繼續等待,還是就此放棄心中的電影夢?幸好。我的妻子給了我最及時的鼓勵。
妻子是我的大學同學,但她是學生物學的,畢⋯⋯業後在當地一家小研究室做藥物研究員,薪水少得可憐。那時候我們已經有了大兒子李涵,為了緩解內心的愧疚,我每天除了在家裡讀書、看電影、寫劇本外,還包攬了所有家務,負責買菜做飯帶孩子,將家裡收拾得乾乾淨淨。還記得那時候,每天傍晚做完晚飯後,我就和兒子坐在門口,一邊講故事給他聽,一邊等待”英勇的獵人媽媽帶著獵物(生活費)回家”。
這樣的生活對一個男人來說,是很傷自尊心的。有段時間,岳父母讓妻子給我一筆錢,讓我拿去開個中餐館,也好養家糊口,但好強的妻子拒絕了,把錢還給了老人家。我知道了這件事後,輾轉反側想了好幾個晚上,終於下定決心:也許這輩子電影夢都離我太遠了,還是面對現實吧。
後來,我去了社區大學,看了半天,最後心酸地報了一門電腦課。在那個生活壓倒一切的年代裡,似乎只有電腦可以在最短時間內讓我有一技之長了。那幾天我一直萎靡不振,妻子很快就發現了我的反常,細心的她發現了我包裡的課程表。那晚,她一宿沒和我說話。
第二天,去上班之前,她快上車了,突然,她站在臺階下轉過身來,一字一句地告訴我:”安,要記得你心裡的夢想!”
那一刻,我心裡像突然起了一陣風,那些快要淹沒在庸碌生活裡的夢想,像那個早上的陽光,一直射進心底。妻子上車走了,我拿出包裡的課程表,慢慢地撕成碎片,丟進了門口的垃圾桶。
後來,我的劇本得到基金會的贊助,我開始自己拿起了攝像機,再到後來,一些電影開始在國際上獲獎。這個時候,妻子重提舊事,她才告訴我:”我一直就相信,人只要有一項長處就足夠了,你的長處就是拍電影。學電腦的人那麼多,又不差你李安一個,你要想拿到奧斯卡的小金人,就一定要保證心裡有夢想。”
如今,我終於拿到了小金人。我覺得自己的忍耐、妻子的付出終於得到了回報,同時也讓我更加堅定,一定要在電影這條路上一直走下去。
因為,我心裡永遠有一個關於電影的夢。
… Rising connoisseurship is a response to life in an age of information shaped by consumerism. As ideas increasingly become the coin of the realm, people distinguish themselves by what they know. An important way to demonstrate this is through what they buy.
It is a form of conspicuous consumption that puts less emphasis on an item’s price tag — craft beers aren’t that expensive — than on its perceived cachet. In hoisting a Tripel brewed by Belgian monks, the drinker is telling the world: I know which ale to quaff. As, in all fairness, he enjoys a very tasty beverage.
Ironically, many items celebrated as examples of connoisseurship — handcrafted, small-batch, artisanal products — are themselves a reaction against the mass production trends of the global consumer society that shapes us. Just as art connoisseurs authenticate paintings, others seek wines and cheese and cupcakes that seem mystically authentic.
“A lot of what gets called connoisseurship is really just snobbery,” said Thomas Frank, who has dissected modern consumer culture in books like “Commodify Your Dissent,” which he edited with Matt Weiland, and “The Conquest of Cool.” “It’s not about the search for quality, but buying things that make you feel good about yourself. It’s about standing apart from the crowd, demonstrating knowledge, hipness.
”The rub is that, as access to knowledge through a Google search has become synonymous with possessing knowledge, fewer and fewer people seem to have the inclination or patience to become true connoisseurs. How many people, after all, have the time to make oodles of money and master the worlds of craft beer, cheese, wines and everything else people in the know must know?
In response, most people outsource connoisseurship, turning to actual connoisseurs for guidance. “Many people want the patina of connoisseurship on the cheap,” said Barry Schwartz, a professor of social theory and social action at Swarthmore College. “So they contract out the decision-making process. My guess is that a tiny fraction of people who are true connoisseurs of wine — and there are some — don’t make enough money to buy a $500 bottle of wine.”
As Steven Jenkins, an expert on cheese and other products at Fairway Market in New York, recently told a reporter for The New York Times: “The customer has no idea what he or she wants. The customer is dying to be told what they want.”
People have always relied on connoisseurs for guidance. What is different today is the idea — suggested by journalists and marketers intent on flattering their customers — that people can become paragons of taste simply by taking someone else’s advice.
Dr. Schwartz said this could be a wise strategy. Consumers may not get the pleasures of deep knowledge, but they also avoid the angst. “You get the benefits of discernment without paying the psychological price” of having to make difficult choices and distinctions, he said. “You’re happy because you’ve been told what to get and don’t know any better.”
// But before y’all stack your soapboxes and get your preach on, don’t forget that people have to start *somewhere*. We don’t all emerge from the egg fully formed and rockin’ our ma+, Boris, CCP and Chinese Replica Rolex hanging from a distressed hodinkee clamped to an Acronym bag’s mil-spec webbing.
The Los Angeles Review of Books presents Lynch’s commentary, in the video above, on 99 pictures taken by others. Listen to him describe his viewing approach—that of a voyeuristic, all-feeling detective—and you’ll never look the same way at curtains, women’s shoes, stone Buddhas, and festering sores again. Can you imagine walking around with David in both Gotham-sized and tiny one-stoplight towns?
Technological revolutions happen in two main phases: the installation phase and the deployment phase. Here’s a chart (from this excellent book by Carlota Perez via Fred Wilson) showing the four previous technological revolutions and the first part of the current one:

Each revolution begins with a financial bubble that propels the (irrationally) rapid “installation” of the new technology. Then there’s a crash, followed by a recovery and then a long period of productive growth as the new technology is “deployed” throughout other industries as well as society more broadly. Eventually the revolution runs its course and a new technological revolution begins.
In the transition from installation to deployment, the bulk of the entrepreneurial activity moves “up the stack”. For example, in the installation phase of the automobile revolution, the action was in building cars. In the deployment phase, the action shifted to the app layer: the highway system, shipping, suburbanization, big box retail, etc.
This pattern is repeating itself in the computing/internet revolution. Most of the successful startups in the 90s built core infrastructure (e.g. optical switching) whereas most of the successful startups since then built applications on top of that infrastructure (e.g. search). The next phase should see startups higher in the stack. According to historical patterns, these would be ones that require deeper cultural change or deeper integration into existing industries.
Some questions to consider:
- What industries are the best candidates for the next phase of deployment? The likely candidates are the information-intensive mega-industries that have been only superficially affected by the internet thus far: education, healthcare, and finance. Note that deployment doesn’t just mean creating, say, a healthcare or education app. It means refactoring an industry into its “optimal structure” – what the industry would look like if rebuilt from scratch using the new technology.
- How long will this deployment period last? Most people – at least in the tech industry – think it’s just getting started. From the inside, it looks like one big revolution with lots of smaller, internal revolutions (PC, internet, mobile, etc). Each smaller revolution extends the duration and impact of the core revolution.
- Where will this innovation take place? The historical pattern suggests it will become more geographically diffuse over time. Detroit was the main beneficiary of the first part of the automobile revolution. Lots of other places benefited from the second part. This is the main reason to be bullish on ”application layer” cities like New York and LA. It is also suggests that entrepreneurs will increasingly have multi-disciplinary expertise.
- Chris Dixon http://bit.ly/XTjW6Z
The world is so big, so complicated, so replete with marvels and surprises that it takes years for most people to begin to notice that it is, also, irretrievably broken. We call this period of research “childhood.”
There follows a program of renewed inquiry, often involuntary, into the nature and effects of mortality, entropy, heartbreak, violence, failure, cowardice, duplicity, cruelty, and grief; the researcher learns their histories, and their bitter lessons, by heart. Along the way, he or she discovers that the world has been broken for as long as anyone can remember, and struggles to reconcile this fact with the ache of cosmic nostalgia that arises, from time to time, in the researcher’s heart: an intimation of vanished glory, of lost wholeness, a memory of the world unbroken. We call the moment at which this ache first arises “adolescence.” The feeling haunts people all their lives.
Everyone, sooner or later, gets a thorough schooling in brokenness. The question becomes: What to do with the pieces? Some people hunker down atop the local pile of ruins and make do, Bedouin tending their goats in the shade of shattered giants. Others set about breaking what remains of the world into bits ever smaller and more jagged, kicking through the rubble like kids running through piles of leaves. And some people, passing among the scattered pieces of that great overturned jigsaw puzzle, start to pick up a piece here, a piece there, with a vague yet irresistible notion that perhaps something might be done about putting the thing back together again.
Two difficulties with this latter scheme at once present themselves. First of all, we have only ever glimpsed, as if through half-closed lids, the picture on the lid of the jigsaw puzzle box. Second, no matter how diligent we have been about picking up pieces along the way, we will never have anywhere near enough of them to finish the job. The most we can hope to accomplish with our handful of salvaged bits—the bittersweet harvest of observation and experience—is to build a little world of our own. A scale model of that mysterious original, unbroken, half—remembered. Of course the worlds we build out of our store of fragments can be only approximations, partial and inaccurate. As representations of the vanished whole that haunts us, they must be accounted failures. And yet in that very failure, in their gaps and inaccuracies, they may yet be faithful maps, accurate scale models, of this beautiful and broken world. We call these scale models “works of art.”
- Michael Chabon on Wes Anderson’s Worlds
“In juxtaposition to couture fashion Margiela’s concept of luxury appropriates only the element of workmanship, not the preciousness of the raw materials. The labels of such creations indicate only the number of hours of labour invested in the production of a garment, as the new criterion of luxury. Such a designation celebrates the standard of the craft at the same time as it critiques the value of excess of such labour-intensive investment. By the same token the exhibition, and the collections, are making a stand with regards to idealized standards of perfection, which, together with luxury, make up the fantasy of glamour. The Martin Margiela team is not celebrating the new or the perfect (all the core values of the fashion industry). Instead the collection references the aging process as a creative ingredient (not as a problem to eliminate). Second-hand materials are worked into the designs, dark clothes are painted with silver paints that do not quite cover completely, and crack with use, revealing the origin and creating an old patina- even with new clothes.”—Efrat Tseëlon, “Outlining a fashion studies project”
(via mylifeasilive-a)