“ Over time, the most skilled players came to inhabit a second tier of reliable competence. Those who succeeded spectacularly - who took their places in the first tier - were often not the most skilled, but rather were those who got some lucky breaks early on or took big risks that happened to pay off. Emulating these top performers would probably lead to disappointment, since imitators would be unlikely to replicate their good fortune.”
It’s not a hard and fast rule by any means. Risks are often worth taking, but if you’re looking for a steady advisor you might be better off with the person in second.
// Risk vs Reward, innit?